Spot Gas Prices Surge Amidst Rising Geopolitical Tensions
The average spot gas price on the Romanian Commodity Exchange (BRM) has exceeded 180 lei/MWh (36.17 euros/MWh), marking the highest level of the year and a record for the past eight months. This surge is attributed to the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has recently targeted gas infrastructure, according to analysis by Profit.ro.
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Market Analysis
On Monday, gas for delivery was traded on the BRM at an average daily price of 180 lei/MWh, with a total of 500 MWh sold at a peak price of 185 lei/MWh.
Compared to the last day of July, when the price was recorded at 141 lei/MWh, August saw a significant appreciation of gas prices on the BRM by 27.6%. This increase largely occurred over the last eight days, during which prices rose from 146 lei/MWh to 180 lei/MWh. The price trends in Romania are in line with those observed across other European markets.
On the leading European gas exchange, the Dutch TTF, the price for a MWh of gas has surpassed 40 euros/MWh, approximately 60% above the year’s minimum of 25.5 euros/MWh, recorded in early April. Similarly, on the key regional exchange, the Austrian CEGH, the price for gas scheduled for Monday delivery was traded at 42.6 euros/MWh, which is 6 euros higher than the price in Romania.
The last time the price for next-day gas delivery exceeded 180 lei/MWh was exactly eight months ago, on December 12, 2023, during the height of winter.
Romania’s Gas Export Status
As of Monday, Romania is a net exporter of gas, receiving supplies primarily from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline, which amounts to 5.6 million cubic meters.
Gas Export Volumes and Recent Developments in the Region
The volume of gas exports is currently at 8.3 million cubic meters, with 7.4 million cubic meters directed to Hungary and 0.9 million cubic meters to the Republic of Moldova. This situation follows the recent maintenance work on the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which supplies Azerbaijani gas to Southern Europe. Additionally, fighting has intensified in the border locality of Sudja, a Russian-occupied city reportedly under Ukrainian control, which serves as a critical interconnection point for Russian gas routes to Europe, being the last operational point on the Ukrainian route.
Domestic Demand for Gas Increases
According to Transgaz, the reduction in gas quantities flowing from the east of the continent—both from the south, where TAP is undergoing maintenance, and from the north, where battles are occurring near the Sudja compression station—has led to a heightened demand for domestic gas exports.
Recent Military Actions and Market Alerts
Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces targeted a non-operational Russian gas platform in the Black Sea, which, according to authorities in Kyiv, was being used exclusively by the Russian military to house personnel and military equipment. In response to these developments, the Ministry of Energy in the Republic of Moldova has initiated the procedure to establish an early warning state in the natural gas market across the Prut River, following a proposal from the transit and system operator Vestmoldtransgaz, which is controlled by Transgaz from Romania.
