The Rise of Election Betting on Polymarket
Crypto gamblers are making waves on Polymarket, with a staggering $445 million in bets placed on a potential presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This has taken election betting to unprecedented heights on the platform.
According to Dune Analytics data, Polymarket’s cumulative bet volume soared to $1.03 billion in July, a significant increase from $672.94 million in June. This surge is a far cry from July 2023, when the platform’s cumulative bet volume stood at $283.16 million.
The World’s Largest Prediction Market
Polymarket offers users the opportunity to wager on a wide range of news events and positions itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” With over 1,000 different outcomes to choose from, including the highly anticipated US presidential election, interest in the platform has spiked in recent weeks.
The recent buzz surrounding Harris’ potential Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump, the leading Republican candidate, have attracted more users and bets to the platform. Despite its focus on US-centric topics, Polymarket continues to draw attention and engagement from a global audience.
Trump vs. Harris Betting Trends
American users are increasingly turning to VPNs and crypto wallets to place bets on the Trump vs. Harris election matchup. While Harris has seen a surge in support following Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Trump still maintains a significant lead in the betting odds.
Stats Comparison
After Biden’s exit, Harris saw her odds of winning the election double from 18% to 38%. This increase was driven by a multitude of smaller bets, while Trump’s support mainly came from a few high-stakes bettors. Despite Harris’s gains, Polymarket whales continue to heavily favor Trump, giving him a 59% chance of winning.
Election Landscape
Analysis of the betting market shows a fiercely contested election season, with key battleground states showing strong support for Republicans. Swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are leaning towards the GOP, while Michigan remains a Democratic stronghold. Overall, Republicans are favored to control the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are predicted to retain control of the House.
Kamala Harris’s Current Standing
As the election draws nearer, Kamala Harris continues to gain momentum in the betting world. Her increasing odds reflect the shifting dynamics of the race, making it a closely watched and exciting event for bettors across the country.
2020 Democratic Nominee and Vice Presidential Nominee Predictions
According to the latest predictions, Joe Biden has a 96% chance of being the Democratic nominee, making him the frontrunner in the race. Michelle Obama is trailing far behind with only a 2% chance of winning the nomination.
In the race for the Democratic vice presidential nominee, Josh Shapiro is currently leading with 32% of the bets, closely followed by Mark Kelly at 29%. It seems like Shapiro might have a good chance at being chosen as the running mate.
When it comes to the popular vote, bettors are giving Kamala Harris a 60% chance of winning, while Trump is holding onto a 38% chance. It will be interesting to see how the election plays out and if these predictions hold true.
