аловите движения и балансовите сметки на развиващите се пазари, показват, че обменният курс на щатския долар е бил средно надценен с 5,8% спрямо икономиката на САЩ през 2023 година. Този факт може да има въздействие върху външната търговия на страната и на финансовите пазари в цял свят.
Overvalued Exchange Rate of the US Dollar
The International Monetary Fund reported on Friday that the gross capital inflow into emerging markets, excluding China, last year increased to $110 billion, or 0.6% of their economic output. This is the highest level since 2018, according to Reuters.
Findings from the IMF’s sectoral report on currencies, capital flows, and balance sheets of emerging markets show that the exchange rate of the US dollar was overvalued by an average of 5.8% compared to the US economy in 2023. This fact could impact the country’s foreign trade and global financial markets.
Financial Stability in Emerging Markets
Recent reports from the IMF indicate that emerging markets are showing resilience despite high interest rates in the US, which have caused global financial imbalances.
The IMF report states that emerging markets are experiencing a decline in volatile portfolio flows, but foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have stabilized. This is partly due to stronger fundamentals, as stated by the IMF.
Many countries are now benefiting from more stable fiscal, monetary, and financial policy frameworks, as well as improved economic governance. This has helped them attract more sustainable capital inflows and mitigate the impact of external shocks.
Global Capital Flows Report
A recent report from the International Monetary Fund highlights the importance of effective implementation of policies and tools in managing capital flows. At the same time, the report notes that China has experienced net outgoing capital flows during the period 2022-2023, including net negative flows in foreign direct investment.
“Some of this may reflect multinational companies repatriating profits, as well as changing expectations for Chinese growth and geopolitical fragmentation,” the IMF states.
Overall, global gross capital flows have decreased to 4.4% of global gross domestic product (GDP), or 4.2 trillion.
The Impact of Global Capital Flows
According to recent data, global capital flows are expected to decrease by 5.8% of the global GDP, or 4.5 trillion dollars, during the period of 2022-2023. This decrease is primarily due to a reduction in capital flows resulting from less purchases of local assets by foreigners and local residents investing abroad.
Benefiting from Changes
Despite this overall decrease, the United States is actually benefitting from these changes. They represent 41% of the global gross inflows during the period of 2022-2023, nearly doubling their share compared to 2017-2019. The US share in global gross outflows is also increasing, rising to 21% from 14% during the same time period.
These shifts may reflect an increased confidence in the US economy and a redirection of global capital towards American assets. This trend could have significant implications for the global economic landscape in the coming years.
The Impact of Financial Fragmentation on Multinational Corporations
Financial fragmentation has become a significant issue for multinational corporations, affecting not only their operations but also leading to the abandonment of certain tax and regulatory strategies. This has created a complex landscape for businesses operating across different markets.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Their Effects
A recent report has revealed that the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar was overvalued by an average of 5.8% against the GDP of the United States in 2023. The Euro was undervalued by 1.7%, the Yen was overvalued by 1.7%, and the Yuan was overvalued by 0.7%, according to the data.